On (Risk)Assessment of Relative Strength

On Relative Strength

oi-Priya Devi

By Priya Devi

Wednesday, October 6, 2010, 14:39

Thirvalluvar in Thirukural 471, emphasises on risk assessment before undertaking a task.

Vinaivaliyum thanvaliyum maatraan valiyum
Thunaivaliyum thookkichch ceyal.

A king will assess the force he needs, the force at his disposal, the enemy"s strength,
And that of his allies, before he launches on an operation.

A prudent king will surely make a careful assessment of the strength, that he needs for the successful implementation of his proposed enterprise, in relation to the strength he already has at his disposal, vis-À-vis the strength of the enemies" forces in the context of his own with reference to his allies" forces, before he decides to enter upon any warlike venture.

A parallel in Pazhamozhi is as follows:

“Thatrookith thanthunaiyum thookip payanthooki
matravai kolva madhivalaar" (Pazamozhi, 821)

In the recent Gulf War, obviously Saddam Hussein of Iraq did not follow this dictum, in particular about assessing his own and his allies" strength and had to pay heavily for it. If he had done the assessment correctly he would surely have listened to the advice of the Secretary General of the United Nations on the night of 14th January 1991, and agreed for the gradual withdrawal from Kuwait, and also secured peace with honour. In the process, he would have possibly become a hero of the Arab World too!

In this context, attention is drawn to V.V.S Iyer"s footnote comment, where he says even a powerful king will fail if he wages war against too many, though not so powerful, enemies at the same time.

Thirukural

Thirukural is an ethical treatise belonging to Tamil classical literature. In Kural 471, Thiruvalluvar emphasises the need to implement risk assessment before a task is undertaken. Ramanandha Adigalar Foundation has made Thirukural available for a larger reading mass.