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COVID-19 Waves Explained: Why Do New COVID Waves Occur?
As India reopens after the second wave of Covid-19 infections, experts warn that a third wave could strike in the next few months. Addressing the Union Health Ministry's media briefing on COVID-19, held at National Media Centre, Dr VK Paul of NITI Aayog (think tank of the Government of India) explained the reasons behind the emergence of new pandemic waves and how it can be controlled or even avoided by following COVID appropriate behaviours and taking the right precautionary measures.
Even as daily COVID-19 cases in India are declining, the All-India Institute of Medical Sciences' Chief has said that a third wave is inevitable [1]. It was added that the third wave might hit the country in the next six to eight weeks (July-August).
"There are countries where even the second wave has not occurred. If we do what is required and do not indulge in irresponsible behaviour, an outbreak should not occur. This is a simple epidemiological principle." Dr VK Paul said [2].
The expert went on to explain the reasons behind the emergence of new pandemic waves and how it can be controlled or even avoided.
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Why Do New Waves In Pandemic Happen?
Dr Paul said that there are four elements leading to the formation of a new wave, and they are as follows:
1. The behaviour of the virus: The virus has the capacity and ability to spread [3].
2. Susceptible host: The virus keeps looking for susceptible hosts for it to survive. So, if we are not protected either via vaccination or by the previous infection, then we are a susceptible host [4].
3. Transmissibility: The virus can become smart enough where it mutates and becomes more transmissible. The same virus which used to infect three hosts becomes capable of infecting 13! This factor is unpredictable. No one can pre-plan to fight such mutations.The change of the very nature of the virus and its transmissibility is an X factor, and no one can predict when and where it may happen [5].
4. Opportunity: ‘Opportunities', which we give to the virus to infect. If we sit and eat together, crowd, sit in closed areas without masks, then the virus gets more opportunities to spread [6].
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How Can The Public Control/Manage The New Waves?
While we have no control over the virus's behaviour, the expert stressed that by adopting the right measures, society could stop becoming triggers to the virus' opportunistic behaviour [7].
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Out of the four points that can trigger new waves, two elements, susceptibility and opportunities, are under our control; that is, we have the capacity to control or manage these two while the behaviour of the virus and transmissibility cannot be predicted or controlled.
- Susceptibility: Susceptibility can be controlled by wearing a mask or getting vaccinated.
- Opportunities: By following COVID Appropriate behaviour, opportunities of the virus contraction can be managed and can decrease susceptibility to infection.
Collective efforts of the citizens and the system are the need of time as it is necessary to stop another wave. The doctor said Some of these require individual efforts, while some others such as isolation of clusters, contact tracing, ensuring testing capacity and building awareness requires the system to act."
As Dr Paul pointed out, pandemics throughout ages have had high transmissibility due to the lack of proper containment measures and that the waves may originate from human behaviour rather than from the virus diffusion itself [8].
Govt. Advises People To Strictly Follow COVID Appropriate Behaviour
A large portion of the virus containment is in our hands. That is, by adhering to COVID appropriate behaviours, you can reduce the risk of spreading/contracting the respiratory illness and possibly contribute towards preventing a severe third wave.
1.
Greet
without
physical
contact.
2.
Maintain
physical
distance.
Keep
a
minimum
distance
of
6
feet.
Also,
follow
distancing
norms
when
in
a
room
or
office
with
other
people.
3.
Wear
reusable
hand-made
face-cover
or
mask
at
all
times
if
you
are
going
out;
DOUBLE
MASK.
4.
Avoid
touching
your
eyes,
nose
or
mouth.
When
you
touch
surfaces,
your
hands
can
easily
pick
up
germs,
then
transfer
them
to
your
eyes,
nose
or
mouth.
And
from
there,
the
virus
can
enter
your
body,
making
you
sick.
5.
Maintain
respiratory
hygiene.
Cover
your
nose
and
mouth
when
you
cough
or
sneeze
with
a
tissue
or
handkerchief.
Wash
your
hands
immediately
after
you
cough
or
sneeze.
6.
Wash
hands
frequently
and
thoroughly
with
soap
and
water.
Use
alcohol-based
hand
sanitiser
if
you
don't
have
soap
and
water.
7.
Regularly
clean
and
disinfect
frequently
touched
surfaces.
Practising
good
environmental
hygiene
makes
your
surroundings
safer.
You
may
use
chemical
disinfectants
to
clean
the
surfaces
and
make
sure
to
wear
gloves
during
disinfection.
8.
DO
NOT
spit
in
the
open.
Every
time
you
chose
to
do
this
unhygienic
practice,
you
are
putting
yourself
and
other's
life
at
risk.
Studies
have
shown
that
spitting
in
public
places
can
increase
the
risk
of
COVID-19
spread.
9.
Avoid
unnecessary
travel
and
travel
when
it's
absolutely
essential.
If
you
have
to
step
out
of
your
home,
wear
a
mask
and
follow
the
distancing
norms.
10.
Do
not
discriminate.
Show
compassion
and
support
to
individuals
and
families
affected
with
COVID-19.
11.
Discourage
crowd
and
encourage
safety.
Avoid
going
to
social
gatherings
and
crowded
places.
For
unavoidable
events,
keep
the
number
of
guests
to
minimal.
12.
Do
not
circulate
social
media
posts
that
carry
unverified
or
negative
information.
13.
Seek
information
on
COVID-19
from
credible
sources.
14.
Seek
psychosocial
support
in
case
of
any
distress
or
anxiety.
Coping
with
any
public
emergency
or
outbreak
can
be
a
testing
time
for
people
and
their
families,
both
affected
or
unaffected.
DO
NOT
ignore
or
suppress
any
feelings
of
anxiety
or
distress.
Call
on
national
psychosocial
toll-free
helpline
number
08046110007.
15.
Call
national
toll-free
helpline
numbers
1075
or
state
helpline
numbers
for
any
COVID-19
related
queries.
If
you
have
any
COVID-19
related
queries
or
observe
any
COVID-19
related
symptoms
like
fever,
cough
or
difficulty
breathing,
call
the
national
helpline
number.
On A Final Note…
The virus is suppressed at present due to discipline and restrictions prevalent in many states, and if the restrictions were to be eased, the virus gets opportunities to infect - worsening the current situation.
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