IMD Says Monsoon May Hit Kerala by May 26 — Here's What You Need to Know

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India's southwest monsoon is arriving early this year - but with a below-normal forecast and El Niño lurking, early doesn't necessarily mean enough.

Every year, India holds its breath for this moment. The sky over Kerala darkens, the air turns thick, and the southwest monsoon makes landfall on the subcontinent. This year, it is arriving a little ahead of schedule - and that combination of an early arrival with a weaker-than-normal forecast is exactly what meteorologists, farmers, and economists are trying to make sense of.

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When Is It Reaching Kerala?

The IMD has forecast the southwest monsoon to arrive over Kerala around May 26, 2026 - nearly a week ahead of the usual June 1 onset date - with an uncertainty margin of four days on either side. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to receive the first rains by May 20. Kerala, as always, will be the first mainland state.

The Full India Timeline

After Kerala, the monsoon marches northward. It typically reaches Mumbai around June 10-11, central India by mid-June, Delhi-NCR around June 27-30, and covers the entire country by approximately July 15. That said, an early Kerala onset does not guarantee a quick advance; progress often slows after the initial landfall.

The Catch: Below-Normal Rain and El Niño

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The early arrival comes with a significant caveat. IMD's long-range forecast predicts below-normal monsoon rainfall for the June-September season, estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average, with El Niño conditions potentially developing later in the season. In real terms, India may receive around 80 cm of rainfall against a long-period average of 87 cm.

Why It Matters

A below-normal monsoon could hurt kharif crops like rice, soybeans, and cotton, drive food inflation, suppress rural incomes, and dent demand for FMCG goods, tractors, and two-wheelers. Reservoirs and hydropower generation are equally at stake.

Bottomline

May 26, give or take four days, that is when Kerala gets its first monsoon shower. But the arrival date is only the start of the story. Whether the rains hold up through September, and whether El Niño clips the season short, will determine the fate of India's harvest and the livelihoods that depend on it.